近期(qi)，特斯拉計(ji)劃2020年在國(guo)內繼續新增(zeng)4000個以上充電(dian)樁；中國(guo)充電(dian)聯盟公布11月份全國(guo)電(dian)動汽車充電(dian)設施運行情況。

主要觀點(dian)：

特(te)斯(si)拉2020年計(ji)劃新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)4000個(ge)，約為過(guo)去(qu)5年建(jian)設總量(liang)的(de)2倍。過(guo)去(qu)的(de)2019年特(te)斯(si)拉新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)112座(zuo)超(chao)級充(chong)電(dian)(dian)站，874個(ge)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，截止目前特(te)斯(si)拉超(chao)級電(dian)(dian)站覆(fu)蓋(gai)140+座(zuo)中國城市(shi)，超(chao)級充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)已經突破2300個(ge)。特(te)斯(si)拉計(ji)劃2020年在國內繼續(xu)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)4000個(ge)以上(shang)超(chao)級充(chong)電(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，是過(guo)去(qu)五年建(jian)設總量(liang)的(de)接近2倍，可(ke)以預(yu)見的(de)是2020年新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)15w輛特(te)斯(si)拉對充(chong)電(dian)(dian)需求的(de)增(zeng)長將(jiang)(jiang)是爆發(fa)式的(de)，特(te)斯(si)拉加(jia)快充(chong)電(dian)(dian)站布局(ju)也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)進一步刺激第三(san)方運營商繼續(xu)加(jia)快布局(ju)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)設施。

2019年(nian)11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)單月(yue)及累計(ji)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公共樁(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)明顯提速。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，我國新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公共樁(zhuang)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)1.74萬(wan)臺，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)241.5%，1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公共樁(zhuang)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)16.4萬(wan)，同(tong)(tong)比去年(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)116.9%，而去年(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比前(qian)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)僅為(wei)(wei)19.5%。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公用(yong)樁(zhuang)和2019年(nian)前(qian)11個月(yue)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公用(yong)樁(zhuang)出現了明顯的(de)加(jia)速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)跡象。截止2019年(nian)11月(yue)，公共樁(zhuang)、私人樁(zhuang)分別為(wei)(wei)49.6萬(wan)、67.8萬(wan)臺，前(qian)11個月(yue)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源車銷量(liang)(liang)/新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)充電樁(zhuang)保有量(liang)(liang)約為(wei)(wei)2.8:1，相(xiang)對去年(nian)年(nian)底（3.2:1）繼續(xu)改(gai)善但遠期(qi)仍顯不足。

短期(qi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)呈現(xian)(xian)季節性提(ti)升，中長(chang)期(qi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)(ying)市場長(chang)期(qi)空(kong)間大。短期(qi)來看：隨著(zhu)冬季取(qu)暖帶來的耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)提(ti)升，11月份公共樁(zhuang)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)呈現(xian)(xian)季節性明(ming)顯(xian)加速，達到5.35億(yi)度，1-11月份累計充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)45.7億(yi)度，同比全年(nian)同期(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)117.6%。我們(men)測算2022年(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和(he)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)費(fei)將分別(bie)達到337億(yi)度、361億(yi)元，四年(nian)復合增(zeng)長(chang)達到80%。充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)(ying)龍頭特(te)銳德激勵目(mu)標要求2018-2023年(nian)5年(nian)復合增(zeng)長(chang)85%，隨著(zhu)其(qi)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的快(kuai)速提(ti)升，盈利能(neng)力(li)有望急劇提(ti)升。

地(di)(di)方(fang)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)加(jia)速從(cong)“補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)(che)”到“補(bu)(bu)(bu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)”，2020年(nian)(nian)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)政策落地(di)(di)將利(li)于(yu)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營行業(ye)更好(hao)發(fa)展。2019年(nian)(nian)新(xin)能源(yuan)車(che)(che)地(di)(di)補(bu)(bu)(bu)加(jia)速由補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)(che)到補(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，《新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車(che)(che)產業(ye)發(fa)展規劃（2021-2035年(nian)(nian)）》（征(zheng)求意見稿）再次(ci)強調要加(jia)快建成適(shi)度(du)超前充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網絡，并明確提(ti)出要提(ti)升(sheng)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)服務水平、鼓勵(li)商業(ye)模式(shi)創(chuang)新(xin)，山東等(deng)多地(di)(di)已經(jing)(jing)公布(bu)了新(xin)能源(yuan)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)獎補(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)政策。年(nian)(nian)底(di)深圳(zhen)已經(jing)(jing)公布(bu)全年(nian)(nian)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)建設(she)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)情(qing)況，以(yi)(yi)深圳(zhen)為例，1kw補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)金額約500元(yuan)(yuan)，1個(ge)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站約26臺樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，平均(jun)功(gong)率87kw，一個(ge)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)114萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)，大致可以(yi)(yi)覆蓋(gai)所有充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)的采購成本(ben)，目前來看，高補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)力度(du)確實帶動了公用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)安裝進(jin)度(du)，公用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比(bi)已經(jing)(jing)下降至7.4:1(2018年(nian)(nian)底(di)7.8:1）。

1、今年以來車樁比繼續呈(cheng)下(xia)降趨勢(shi)，但充(chong)電樁規(gui)模上仍存在滯后

2、短期充電(dian)量呈季(ji)節(jie)性快速提升，中長期充電(dian)運營市場(chang)長期空(kong)間大

3、地方補貼(tie)(tie)加速從“補車”到“補樁”，2020年充電設施補貼(tie)(tie)政策落(luo)地將利(li)于充電運營行業更好發展

產(chan)業(ye)政策多次提(ti)出必須(xu)加(jia)快(kuai)且(qie)適度(du)超前(qian)(qian)建(jian)設(she)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)，鼓勵技(ji)術和(he)商業(ye)模式(shi)創(chuang)新(xin)。發(fa)改(gai)委、能源(yuan)局(ju)等四部委在(zai)2018年(nian)12月10日聯合印發(fa)了(le)《提(ti)升新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車充(chong)電(dian)(dian)保障能力行動計劃》，提(ti)出力爭三(san)年(nian)時(shi)間(jian)大幅度(du)提(ti)升國內(nei)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術水(shui)平，并強調必須(xu)完善一(yi)車一(yi)樁的(de)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)剛(gang)需(xu)，以進(jin)一(yi)步優化充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)發(fa)展環(huan)境和(he)產(chan)業(ye)格局(ju)。2019年(nian)12月工信部發(fa)布《新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車產(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展規劃（2021-2035年(nian)）》（征(zheng)求意見稿）提(ti)出加(jia)快(kuai)形成(cheng)適度(du)超前(qian)(qian)、慢充(chong)為主、應急快(kuai)充(chong)為輔(fu)的(de)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)網絡，提(ti)高充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)服務水(shui)平，充(chong)電(dian)(dian)運營(ying)鼓勵商業(ye)模式(shi)創(chuang)新(xin)。

政策(ce)(ce)補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)呈現向(xiang)(xiang)先進電(dian)(dian)池技術、向(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)(dian)配套(tao)設施傾斜兩大方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)普(pu)及過(guo)程前(qian)期政策(ce)(ce)著眼(yan)于(yu)消費者直接體會(hui)的新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)購置消費補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)上，成(cheng)功(gong)拉動(dong)起(qi)(qi)需求側積極響應，當(dang)前(qian)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)已經被廣泛認知(zhi)，當(dang)下(xia)階段，政策(ce)(ce)體現兩大動(dong)向(xiang)(xiang)-------向(xiang)(xiang)高能(neng)量密度等先進電(dian)(dian)池技術傾斜、向(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)(dian)配套(tao)設施傾斜。2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)2月份財政部等4部《關于(yu)調(diao)整完(wan)善(shan)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)推廣應用(yong)財政補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)政策(ce)(ce)的通知(zhi)》首次提出從2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)起(qi)(qi)將新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)地方(fang)購置補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)資(zi)金逐漸(jian)轉為支持充電(dian)(dian)基礎設施建(jian)設和(he)運營(ying)、新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)使用(yong)和(he)運營(ying)等環節(jie)，2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)3月“新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度補(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)政策(ce)(ce)”再一次明確了(le)這(zhe)一方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。