近期，特斯拉(la)計劃2020年在國(guo)內繼續新增4000個以(yi)上(shang)充(chong)電(dian)樁；中(zhong)國(guo)充(chong)電(dian)聯盟公布11月份(fen)全國(guo)電(dian)動(dong)汽車(che)充(chong)電(dian)設施運行情況。

主要觀點(dian)：

特(te)斯(si)拉(la)(la)2020年(nian)(nian)計劃新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)4000個(ge)，約為過去(qu)5年(nian)(nian)建(jian)設(she)總量的(de)(de)(de)2倍。過去(qu)的(de)(de)(de)2019年(nian)(nian)特(te)斯(si)拉(la)(la)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)112座(zuo)超級充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站，874個(ge)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)，截止(zhi)目前(qian)特(te)斯(si)拉(la)(la)超級電(dian)(dian)(dian)站覆蓋140+座(zuo)中國(guo)城市(shi)，超級充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)數(shu)量已(yi)經突破2300個(ge)。特(te)斯(si)拉(la)(la)計劃2020年(nian)(nian)在國(guo)內繼續(xu)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)4000個(ge)以上超級充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)，是過去(qu)五年(nian)(nian)建(jian)設(she)總量的(de)(de)(de)接(jie)近(jin)2倍，可以預(yu)見(jian)的(de)(de)(de)是2020年(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)15w輛特(te)斯(si)拉(la)(la)對充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長將是爆發式(shi)的(de)(de)(de)，特(te)斯(si)拉(la)(la)加快充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站布(bu)局也將進一步刺(ci)激第三(san)方(fang)運營(ying)商(shang)繼續(xu)加快布(bu)局充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)。

2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)單月(yue)及累計新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長明顯提速。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，我國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)1.74萬(wan)臺(tai)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長241.5%，1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)16.4萬(wan)，同(tong)比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長116.9%，而去(qu)年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比前(qian)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期僅為19.5%。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用樁(zhuang)(zhuang)和2019年(nian)(nian)前(qian)11個(ge)(ge)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用樁(zhuang)(zhuang)出現(xian)了明顯的加速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長跡象。截止2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)，公(gong)共(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)、私人(ren)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)分(fen)別為49.6萬(wan)、67.8萬(wan)臺(tai)，前(qian)11個(ge)(ge)月(yue)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)能源車銷量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)/新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)充電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)保有量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)約為2.8:1，相對去(qu)年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)底(di)（3.2:1）繼(ji)續改善(shan)但遠期仍顯不足。

短(duan)期充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)量呈(cheng)現季(ji)節(jie)性提(ti)升，中(zhong)長期充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)運營市場長期空間大(da)。短(duan)期來看(kan)：隨著(zhu)冬季(ji)取暖帶來的(de)耗電(dian)量提(ti)升，11月(yue)份公共樁充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量呈(cheng)現季(ji)節(jie)性明顯加速(su)，達到5.35億(yi)度，1-11月(yue)份累計充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)量45.7億(yi)度，同比全(quan)年(nian)同期增長117.6%。我們測算2022年(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量和充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)費將分別達到337億(yi)度、361億(yi)元，四年(nian)復(fu)合增長達到80%。充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)運營龍頭特銳德(de)激勵目標要求2018-2023年(nian)5年(nian)復(fu)合增長85%，隨著(zhu)其充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)量的(de)快速(su)提(ti)升，盈利能力有望(wang)急劇提(ti)升。

地方補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)加速(su)從“補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)(che)(che)”到“補(bu)(bu)(bu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)”，2020年充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)政策(ce)落地將利于充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)運營(ying)行業更好(hao)發(fa)展(zhan)。2019年新能源車(che)(che)(che)地補(bu)(bu)(bu)加速(su)由補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)(che)(che)到補(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)，《新能源汽車(che)(che)(che)產業發(fa)展(zhan)規劃（2021-2035年）》（征求意見稿）再次強(qiang)調要加快建成適度超前(qian)(qian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)網(wang)絡，并明確提(ti)(ti)出(chu)要提(ti)(ti)升充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)服務水平、鼓勵商業模式創新，山東等(deng)多(duo)地已經公布了新能源充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)獎補(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)政策(ce)。年底深圳(zhen)已經公布全年充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)(shi)建設(she)(she)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)情況，以深圳(zhen)為例，1kw補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)金(jin)額(e)約(yue)500元，1個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)約(yue)26臺樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，平均功(gong)率87kw，一個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)114萬(wan)元，大致(zhi)可以覆蓋(gai)所有充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)(she)備的采購成本，目前(qian)(qian)來看，高補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)力度確實(shi)帶動了公用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)安裝(zhuang)進度，公用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)車(che)(che)(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比已經下降至7.4:1(2018年底7.8:1）。

1、今年以來(lai)車樁(zhuang)比(bi)繼續呈下降趨(qu)勢(shi)，但充電樁(zhuang)規模上仍存在滯(zhi)后

2、短期充(chong)(chong)電(dian)量呈季節(jie)性快速提升(sheng)，中長(chang)期充(chong)(chong)電(dian)運營市場長(chang)期空間大(da)

3、地方補貼加速從(cong)“補車”到“補樁”，2020年充電(dian)設施補貼政(zheng)策落(luo)地將利于(yu)充電(dian)運營(ying)行業更好(hao)發(fa)展

產(chan)(chan)業(ye)政策多(duo)次(ci)提(ti)(ti)出必須加(jia)快(kuai)且(qie)適度超(chao)前建設(she)充(chong)(chong)電設(she)施(shi)(shi)，鼓(gu)勵(li)技術和商(shang)(shang)業(ye)模(mo)(mo)式創新(xin)。發(fa)改委、能源(yuan)局等(deng)四部委在(zai)2018年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)10日聯合印發(fa)了(le)《提(ti)(ti)升新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車(che)充(chong)(chong)電保障(zhang)能力行動(dong)計劃(hua)》，提(ti)(ti)出力爭(zheng)三年(nian)時(shi)間(jian)大(da)幅度提(ti)(ti)升國內充(chong)(chong)電技術水平，并強調必須完(wan)善(shan)一車(che)一樁(zhuang)的充(chong)(chong)電剛需，以進一步優(you)化充(chong)(chong)電基礎設(she)施(shi)(shi)發(fa)展(zhan)環境和產(chan)(chan)業(ye)格局。2019年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)工(gong)信部發(fa)布《新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車(che)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)規劃(hua)（2021-2035年(nian)）》（征求意(yi)見稿）提(ti)(ti)出加(jia)快(kuai)形成適度超(chao)前、慢充(chong)(chong)為主(zhu)、應急(ji)快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)為輔的充(chong)(chong)電網絡，提(ti)(ti)高充(chong)(chong)電基礎設(she)施(shi)(shi)服務水平，充(chong)(chong)電運營(ying)鼓(gu)勵(li)商(shang)(shang)業(ye)模(mo)(mo)式創新(xin)。

政策補貼(tie)呈現向(xiang)(xiang)先(xian)進(jin)電(dian)(dian)池技術(shu)、向(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)(dian)配(pei)套設(she)施傾斜(xie)兩大方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。新(xin)能源車(che)(che)普及過程(cheng)前(qian)期政策著眼于消費者直接(jie)體(ti)會(hui)的新(xin)能源車(che)(che)購置(zhi)消費補貼(tie)上，成功(gong)拉動起(qi)需求側積極響應(ying)，當(dang)前(qian)新(xin)能源車(che)(che)已(yi)經(jing)被廣泛(fan)認知(zhi)，當(dang)下階段，政策體(ti)現兩大動向(xiang)(xiang)-------向(xiang)(xiang)高能量(liang)密度等先(xian)進(jin)電(dian)(dian)池技術(shu)傾斜(xie)、向(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)(dian)配(pei)套設(she)施傾斜(xie)。2018年2月份財(cai)政部等4部《關于調整完善(shan)新(xin)能源汽(qi)車(che)(che)推(tui)廣應(ying)用(yong)財(cai)政補貼(tie)政策的通知(zhi)》首次提出從2018年起(qi)將新(xin)能源汽(qi)車(che)(che)地方(fang)購置(zhi)補貼(tie)資金(jin)逐漸轉為支持充電(dian)(dian)基(ji)礎設(she)施建設(she)和運營、新(xin)能源汽(qi)車(che)(che)使用(yong)和運營等環(huan)節，2019年3月“新(xin)能源車(che)(che)年度補貼(tie)政策”再一(yi)次明確(que)了這(zhe)一(yi)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。