近期，特斯拉計(ji)劃2020年在國內繼續新增4000個以上充(chong)(chong)電樁(zhuang)；中國充(chong)(chong)電聯(lian)盟公(gong)布11月份全國電動(dong)汽車(che)充(chong)(chong)電設施(shi)運行(xing)情況。

主要觀點(dian)：

特斯(si)(si)拉(la)2020年計(ji)劃(hua)新增充電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁4000個(ge)，約為過(guo)去(qu)5年建設(she)總量的(de)2倍。過(guo)去(qu)的(de)2019年特斯(si)(si)拉(la)新增112座(zuo)超(chao)級(ji)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)，874個(ge)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁，截止目前特斯(si)(si)拉(la)超(chao)級(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)覆蓋140+座(zuo)中國城市，超(chao)級(ji)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁數量已經突破2300個(ge)。特斯(si)(si)拉(la)計(ji)劃(hua)2020年在國內繼(ji)續(xu)新增4000個(ge)以上超(chao)級(ji)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)樁，是過(guo)去(qu)五(wu)年建設(she)總量的(de)接近2倍，可以預見的(de)是2020年新增15w輛特斯(si)(si)拉(la)對充電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求的(de)增長將是爆(bao)發式的(de)，特斯(si)(si)拉(la)加快充電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)布局(ju)也將進一步刺激第三方運(yun)營商繼(ji)續(xu)加快布局(ju)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)。

2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)單(dan)月(yue)及(ji)累計(ji)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)明(ming)顯提(ti)速(su)(su)。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，我國新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)1.74萬(wan)臺，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)241.5%，1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)16.4萬(wan)，同比去年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)116.9%，而去年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)同比前年(nian)(nian)同期僅(jin)為(wei)19.5%。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)和2019年(nian)(nian)前11個(ge)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)出現了(le)明(ming)顯的加(jia)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)跡象(xiang)。截止2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)，公(gong)共樁(zhuang)、私人樁(zhuang)分別為(wei)49.6萬(wan)、67.8萬(wan)臺，前11個(ge)月(yue)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)車銷量(liang)(liang)/新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)充電樁(zhuang)保有量(liang)(liang)約為(wei)2.8:1，相對去年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)底（3.2:1）繼續改(gai)善但遠期仍顯不足。

短(duan)期(qi)(qi)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量呈(cheng)現季節(jie)性提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)，中長期(qi)(qi)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)市場長期(qi)(qi)空間大。短(duan)期(qi)(qi)來(lai)看：隨(sui)著冬季取暖帶來(lai)的(de)耗(hao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)，11月份(fen)公共(gong)樁充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量呈(cheng)現季節(jie)性明顯(xian)加速，達(da)(da)到5.35億(yi)度，1-11月份(fen)累計(ji)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量45.7億(yi)度，同比全年同期(qi)(qi)增長117.6%。我們測算2022年充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量和(he)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)費將(jiang)分別達(da)(da)到337億(yi)度、361億(yi)元，四年復(fu)合(he)增長達(da)(da)到80%。充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)龍(long)頭特(te)銳(rui)德激(ji)勵目標要求(qiu)2018-2023年5年復(fu)合(he)增長85%，隨(sui)著其充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量的(de)快(kuai)速提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)，盈利(li)能力有望(wang)急劇(ju)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)。

地方(fang)補(bu)(bu)貼加(jia)速從“補(bu)(bu)車(che)”到(dao)“補(bu)(bu)樁”，2020年(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)(shi)補(bu)(bu)貼政(zheng)策落(luo)地將利于(yu)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)運營行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)更好發(fa)展(zhan)。2019年(nian)(nian)新(xin)能源(yuan)車(che)地補(bu)(bu)加(jia)速由補(bu)(bu)車(che)到(dao)補(bu)(bu)電(dian)，《新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車(che)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)規劃(hua)（2021-2035年(nian)(nian)）》（征(zheng)求(qiu)意(yi)見稿）再次(ci)強調要加(jia)快建(jian)成適度超(chao)前充(chong)(chong)電(dian)網絡，并明確提出要提升充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)(shi)服務水平、鼓勵商業(ye)(ye)(ye)模式創新(xin)，山東等(deng)多地已(yi)經(jing)(jing)公布(bu)了新(xin)能源(yuan)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)(shi)獎補(bu)(bu)等(deng)政(zheng)策。年(nian)(nian)底深(shen)圳已(yi)經(jing)(jing)公布(bu)全年(nian)(nian)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)(shi)建(jian)設補(bu)(bu)貼情況，以深(shen)圳為例(li)，1kw補(bu)(bu)貼金額約500元(yuan)，1個充(chong)(chong)電(dian)站約26臺樁，平均功(gong)率87kw，一個充(chong)(chong)電(dian)站補(bu)(bu)貼114萬元(yuan)，大致可以覆蓋(gai)所有(you)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設備的采購成本(ben)，目(mu)前來看，高(gao)補(bu)(bu)貼力度確實帶動了公用樁安裝進度，公用樁車(che)樁比已(yi)經(jing)(jing)下降至7.4:1(2018年(nian)(nian)底7.8:1）。

1、今(jin)年以來車樁比繼續呈下降趨勢，但充電(dian)樁規模上(shang)仍存在(zai)滯后(hou)

2、短(duan)期(qi)充電量呈季節(jie)性快速提升(sheng)，中長期(qi)充電運(yun)營市場(chang)長期(qi)空間(jian)大

3、地方(fang)補(bu)貼加速從“補(bu)車”到“補(bu)樁”，2020年充(chong)電設施補(bu)貼政(zheng)策落地將利(li)于(yu)充(chong)電運營行業更好發展

產業政策多次提(ti)出(chu)必須加快且適度(du)超前建設(she)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)，鼓勵技(ji)術和(he)商業模(mo)式創(chuang)新(xin)。發改(gai)委(wei)、能(neng)源局等四部委(wei)在2018年(nian)12月(yue)10日聯合印(yin)發了《提(ti)升(sheng)新(xin)能(neng)源汽(qi)車充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)保障能(neng)力行動計劃(hua)(hua)》，提(ti)出(chu)力爭(zheng)三年(nian)時間(jian)大幅度(du)提(ti)升(sheng)國內充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)技(ji)術水(shui)平，并強調必須完善(shan)一(yi)車一(yi)樁(zhuang)的(de)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)剛(gang)需，以(yi)進一(yi)步優化(hua)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎設(she)施(shi)發展環(huan)境(jing)和(he)產業格(ge)局。2019年(nian)12月(yue)工信部發布《新(xin)能(neng)源汽(qi)車產業發展規劃(hua)(hua)（2021-2035年(nian)）》（征求意見稿）提(ti)出(chu)加快形(xing)成(cheng)適度(du)超前、慢充(chong)(chong)為(wei)主、應急快充(chong)(chong)為(wei)輔的(de)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)網絡，提(ti)高(gao)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎設(she)施(shi)服務(wu)水(shui)平，充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)運營鼓勵商業模(mo)式創(chuang)新(xin)。

政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策補(bu)貼(tie)呈現向(xiang)(xiang)先進(jin)電池技術、向(xiang)(xiang)充(chong)(chong)電配(pei)套(tao)設施傾(qing)斜兩大(da)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)普及過(guo)程(cheng)前期政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策著眼(yan)于(yu)消費者直接體會的新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)購(gou)(gou)置(zhi)消費補(bu)貼(tie)上(shang)，成(cheng)功拉動起需求側(ce)積(ji)極響應，當前新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)已經被廣泛認知，當下階(jie)段，政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策體現兩大(da)動向(xiang)(xiang)-------向(xiang)(xiang)高能(neng)(neng)量密度等先進(jin)電池技術傾(qing)斜、向(xiang)(xiang)充(chong)(chong)電配(pei)套(tao)設施傾(qing)斜。2018年2月份財政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)部等4部《關于(yu)調整(zheng)完善新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)推廣應用(yong)(yong)財政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)補(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策的通知》首次(ci)提(ti)出從2018年起將新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)地方(fang)購(gou)(gou)置(zhi)補(bu)貼(tie)資金逐漸(jian)轉為支持(chi)充(chong)(chong)電基礎設施建設和(he)(he)運營(ying)、新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)使用(yong)(yong)和(he)(he)運營(ying)等環節，2019年3月“新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)年度補(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策”再一(yi)次(ci)明確了這一(yi)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)。