近期，特斯拉計劃2020年在國內繼續(xu)新增(zeng)4000個(ge)以上充(chong)電(dian)樁；中(zhong)國充(chong)電(dian)聯(lian)盟(meng)公布11月份全(quan)國電(dian)動汽車充(chong)電(dian)設施運行情(qing)況。

主要觀點：

特斯(si)(si)(si)拉(la)2020年(nian)(nian)計劃新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)4000個，約為過(guo)去5年(nian)(nian)建設總(zong)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)2倍(bei)。過(guo)去的(de)(de)(de)2019年(nian)(nian)特斯(si)(si)(si)拉(la)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)112座超級(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站，874個充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，截止(zhi)目前特斯(si)(si)(si)拉(la)超級(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站覆(fu)蓋140+座中國城市，超級(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)已經突破2300個。特斯(si)(si)(si)拉(la)計劃2020年(nian)(nian)在(zai)國內繼續(xu)(xu)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)4000個以(yi)上超級(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，是(shi)過(guo)去五(wu)年(nian)(nian)建設總(zong)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)接近2倍(bei)，可以(yi)預見的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)2020年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)15w輛特斯(si)(si)(si)拉(la)對充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長將(jiang)是(shi)爆發(fa)式的(de)(de)(de)，特斯(si)(si)(si)拉(la)加快充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站布局也將(jiang)進一步刺激第三方運營商(shang)繼續(xu)(xu)加快布局充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施。

2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)單(dan)月(yue)及累計(ji)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共樁(zhuang)(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)明顯(xian)提速。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，我國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)1.74萬(wan)(wan)(wan)臺，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)241.5%，1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)(liang)16.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)116.9%，而(er)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)前年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期僅為19.5%。11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)(gong)(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)和2019年(nian)(nian)前11個(ge)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)(gong)(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)出現(xian)了(le)明顯(xian)的加速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)跡(ji)象。截止2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)共樁(zhuang)(zhuang)、私人樁(zhuang)(zhuang)分別為49.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)、67.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)臺，前11個(ge)月(yue)月(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)能源車銷量(liang)(liang)(liang)/新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)充電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)保有(you)量(liang)(liang)(liang)約為2.8:1，相對去(qu)年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)底(di)（3.2:1）繼(ji)續改善但(dan)遠期仍(reng)顯(xian)不足。

短(duan)期(qi)充(chong)電(dian)量(liang)呈(cheng)現(xian)季節性提(ti)升，中長(chang)(chang)期(qi)充(chong)電(dian)運(yun)營市場(chang)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)空間大。短(duan)期(qi)來看(kan)：隨著(zhu)冬季取(qu)暖帶來的耗電(dian)量(liang)提(ti)升，11月份(fen)公共(gong)樁充(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量(liang)呈(cheng)現(xian)季節性明顯加速(su)，達(da)到(dao)5.35億(yi)度(du)，1-11月份(fen)累計充(chong)電(dian)量(liang)45.7億(yi)度(du)，同比全年(nian)同期(qi)增長(chang)(chang)117.6%。我(wo)們測算2022年(nian)充(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量(liang)和充(chong)電(dian)費將分別達(da)到(dao)337億(yi)度(du)、361億(yi)元，四年(nian)復(fu)合(he)增長(chang)(chang)達(da)到(dao)80%。充(chong)電(dian)運(yun)營龍頭特銳德激勵目標要求(qiu)2018-2023年(nian)5年(nian)復(fu)合(he)增長(chang)(chang)85%，隨著(zhu)其充(chong)電(dian)量(liang)的快(kuai)速(su)提(ti)升，盈(ying)利能力(li)有望急劇(ju)提(ti)升。

地(di)(di)方補(bu)(bu)貼加(jia)速從“補(bu)(bu)車”到“補(bu)(bu)樁(zhuang)”，2020年(nian)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)補(bu)(bu)貼政策(ce)落地(di)(di)將(jiang)利于充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運營行業(ye)更好發(fa)展(zhan)。2019年(nian)新能源(yuan)車地(di)(di)補(bu)(bu)加(jia)速由補(bu)(bu)車到補(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，《新能源(yuan)汽車產(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)規劃（2021-2035年(nian)）》（征求意見稿）再(zai)次強調要加(jia)快(kuai)建成(cheng)適度超前(qian)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網絡，并明(ming)確提出要提升充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)服務(wu)水平、鼓(gu)勵商(shang)業(ye)模(mo)式創(chuang)新，山東等多(duo)地(di)(di)已經公布了新能源(yuan)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)獎(jiang)補(bu)(bu)等政策(ce)。年(nian)底(di)深(shen)(shen)圳已經公布全年(nian)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)建設(she)(she)補(bu)(bu)貼情(qing)況(kuang)，以深(shen)(shen)圳為(wei)例，1kw補(bu)(bu)貼金(jin)額約(yue)500元，1個充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)約(yue)26臺(tai)樁(zhuang)，平均功率87kw，一個充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)補(bu)(bu)貼114萬元，大致可以覆蓋所有充(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備(bei)的采購成(cheng)本，目(mu)前(qian)來看，高補(bu)(bu)貼力度確實(shi)帶動了公用樁(zhuang)安裝進度，公用樁(zhuang)車樁(zhuang)比已經下降至7.4:1(2018年(nian)底(di)7.8:1）。

1、今年以來車(che)樁(zhuang)比繼(ji)續呈下降趨勢，但充電樁(zhuang)規(gui)模上仍存在滯后

2、短期充電量呈季節性快速提升，中長(chang)期充電運營市(shi)場長(chang)期空(kong)間大

3、地方補(bu)貼(tie)加速從“補(bu)車”到(dao)“補(bu)樁”，2020年充電設(she)施補(bu)貼(tie)政策落(luo)地將利于充電運營行業更好發展

產業(ye)政策多(duo)次提(ti)出(chu)必(bi)須加(jia)快(kuai)且適度(du)超(chao)(chao)前(qian)建設充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施，鼓勵技(ji)術和商業(ye)模(mo)式(shi)創新(xin)。發改委、能源局等四部委在2018年(nian)(nian)12月10日聯合印發了《提(ti)升新(xin)能源汽車(che)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保障能力行(xing)動計(ji)劃》，提(ti)出(chu)力爭三年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)大幅度(du)提(ti)升國內(nei)充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)術水平，并強(qiang)調必(bi)須完善一車(che)一樁的充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)剛需，以進一步(bu)優化充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基(ji)礎設施發展(zhan)環(huan)境和產業(ye)格(ge)局。2019年(nian)(nian)12月工(gong)信部發布《新(xin)能源汽車(che)產業(ye)發展(zhan)規劃（2021-2035年(nian)(nian)）》（征求意(yi)見稿）提(ti)出(chu)加(jia)快(kuai)形成適度(du)超(chao)(chao)前(qian)、慢充為主、應(ying)急快(kuai)充為輔的充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網絡，提(ti)高充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基(ji)礎設施服務(wu)水平，充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營鼓勵商業(ye)模(mo)式(shi)創新(xin)。

政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)呈現向(xiang)先進(jin)電(dian)(dian)池技術、向(xiang)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)配套設施(shi)傾斜兩大(da)方(fang)向(xiang)。新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車普及(ji)過程前期政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)著眼于消(xiao)費者直接體(ti)會的新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車購(gou)置(zhi)消(xiao)費補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)上，成功拉動起需求側積極響(xiang)應，當(dang)前新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車已(yi)經被廣(guang)泛認知，當(dang)下階段(duan)，政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)體(ti)現兩大(da)動向(xiang)-------向(xiang)高能(neng)量密度(du)等先進(jin)電(dian)(dian)池技術傾斜、向(xiang)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)配套設施(shi)傾斜。2018年(nian)(nian)2月份財政(zheng)部(bu)等4部(bu)《關于調整完善(shan)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽車推(tui)廣(guang)應用財政(zheng)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的通(tong)知》首次提(ti)出從(cong)2018年(nian)(nian)起將(jiang)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽車地(di)方(fang)購(gou)置(zhi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)資金逐漸轉為(wei)支持充(chong)電(dian)(dian)基礎設施(shi)建設和運營(ying)、新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)汽車使用和運營(ying)等環(huan)節，2019年(nian)(nian)3月“新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)車年(nian)(nian)度(du)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)”再一次明確了這一方(fang)向(xiang)。