近(jin)期，特(te)斯(si)拉(la)計劃2020年在國(guo)內繼(ji)續新增4000個以上充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁；中國(guo)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)聯盟(meng)公布11月份全國(guo)電(dian)動汽車充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)運行情況。

主(zhu)要觀點：

特(te)(te)斯拉(la)2020年計(ji)劃新(xin)增(zeng)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)4000個(ge)，約為(wei)過(guo)去(qu)5年建設總量(liang)的(de)(de)2倍。過(guo)去(qu)的(de)(de)2019年特(te)(te)斯拉(la)新(xin)增(zeng)112座超級(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)，874個(ge)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，截止(zhi)目前(qian)特(te)(te)斯拉(la)超級(ji)(ji)電(dian)站(zhan)覆蓋140+座中國(guo)城市，超級(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)已(yi)經突破2300個(ge)。特(te)(te)斯拉(la)計(ji)劃2020年在國(guo)內(nei)繼(ji)續新(xin)增(zeng)4000個(ge)以(yi)(yi)上超級(ji)(ji)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，是過(guo)去(qu)五年建設總量(liang)的(de)(de)接(jie)近2倍，可以(yi)(yi)預見的(de)(de)是2020年新(xin)增(zeng)15w輛特(te)(te)斯拉(la)對充(chong)(chong)電(dian)需求(qiu)的(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)將是爆發式的(de)(de)，特(te)(te)斯拉(la)加快充(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)布局也將進一(yi)步刺激第三(san)方運營商繼(ji)續加快布局充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)。

2019年(nian)11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)單月(yue)(yue)及累計(ji)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)明顯提速。11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)，我(wo)國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)數(shu)量(liang)1.74萬(wan)臺，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)241.5%，1-11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)數(shu)量(liang)16.4萬(wan)，同(tong)(tong)比去年(nian)1-11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)116.9%，而(er)去年(nian)1-11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比前年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期僅(jin)為(wei)(wei)19.5%。11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公用樁(zhuang)和2019年(nian)前11個月(yue)(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公用樁(zhuang)出現了明顯的加(jia)速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)跡象。截止2019年(nian)11月(yue)(yue)，公共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)、私人(ren)樁(zhuang)分別為(wei)(wei)49.6萬(wan)、67.8萬(wan)臺，前11個月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)能源車銷量(liang)/新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)充電樁(zhuang)保有(you)量(liang)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)2.8:1，相對去年(nian)年(nian)底（3.2:1）繼(ji)續(xu)改善但遠期仍(reng)顯不(bu)足。

短(duan)期(qi)充(chong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)呈現季(ji)(ji)節性提升(sheng)，中長(chang)期(qi)充(chong)電(dian)運營市場(chang)長(chang)期(qi)空間大。短(duan)期(qi)來(lai)看(kan)：隨著冬(dong)季(ji)(ji)取暖(nuan)帶來(lai)的(de)耗電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)提升(sheng)，11月份公共樁充(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)呈現季(ji)(ji)節性明顯(xian)加速，達(da)到(dao)5.35億度，1-11月份累計(ji)充(chong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)45.7億度，同(tong)比全年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)117.6%。我們測算2022年(nian)充(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)和充(chong)電(dian)費將分(fen)別達(da)到(dao)337億度、361億元，四(si)年(nian)復合增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)達(da)到(dao)80%。充(chong)電(dian)運營龍頭特銳德激勵目(mu)標要求2018-2023年(nian)5年(nian)復合增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)85%，隨著其充(chong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)快速提升(sheng)，盈(ying)利(li)能力有望急劇提升(sheng)。

地(di)方補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼加(jia)速(su)從“補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)”到(dao)“補(bu)(bu)(bu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)”，2020年充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)施(shi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼政策(ce)落(luo)地(di)將利于充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運(yun)營行業更(geng)好(hao)發展(zhan)(zhan)。2019年新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)地(di)補(bu)(bu)(bu)加(jia)速(su)由(you)補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)到(dao)補(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，《新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)產業發展(zhan)(zhan)規劃（2021-2035年）》（征求意見稿）再次強調要加(jia)快建(jian)成適度超前充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)絡，并明確提(ti)出要提(ti)升充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)施(shi)服務(wu)水平(ping)、鼓勵商(shang)業模(mo)式創新，山(shan)東等(deng)多地(di)已(yi)經公(gong)布了(le)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)施(shi)獎補(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)政策(ce)。年底深圳已(yi)經公(gong)布全年充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)施(shi)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼情況，以深圳為例，1kw補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼金額約500元，1個充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站約26臺樁(zhuang)(zhuang)，平(ping)均功率(lv)87kw，一個充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼114萬元，大致(zhi)可以覆蓋所有(you)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)的采購成本，目(mu)前來看，高(gao)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼力度確實帶動了(le)公(gong)用樁(zhuang)(zhuang)安(an)裝進度，公(gong)用樁(zhuang)(zhuang)車(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)比已(yi)經下降至7.4:1(2018年底7.8:1）。

1、今年以來車樁(zhuang)比繼(ji)續呈下降趨勢，但充電(dian)樁(zhuang)規模上(shang)仍存在滯后

2、短期充電量呈季節性快速提升，中長期充電運營市場(chang)長期空間大

3、地方補貼加速從“補車”到“補樁”，2020年充電設施補貼政策落(luo)地將利(li)于充電運營行業更好(hao)發展

產業(ye)政策(ce)多次(ci)提(ti)(ti)出必(bi)須加(jia)快(kuai)且適(shi)度超前(qian)建設充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設施(shi)，鼓勵(li)(li)技術(shu)和商(shang)業(ye)模式創新。發改委、能(neng)源(yuan)局等(deng)四部委在2018年(nian)12月10日聯合印發了《提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)新能(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保障(zhang)能(neng)力行(xing)動(dong)計劃》，提(ti)(ti)出力爭三年(nian)時(shi)間(jian)大幅(fu)度提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)國內(nei)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技術(shu)水平，并強調必(bi)須完善(shan)一車(che)一樁的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)剛需，以進一步優化充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設施(shi)發展環境和產業(ye)格局。2019年(nian)12月工信(xin)部發布(bu)《新能(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)產業(ye)發展規劃（2021-2035年(nian)）》（征求意見稿）提(ti)(ti)出加(jia)快(kuai)形成適(shi)度超前(qian)、慢充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)為主、應(ying)急快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)為輔的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網絡，提(ti)(ti)高充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基礎設施(shi)服務(wu)水平，充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營鼓勵(li)(li)商(shang)業(ye)模式創新。

政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策補(bu)貼呈現向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)先進電(dian)池(chi)技術(shu)、向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)配套(tao)設施傾斜兩大(da)(da)方向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)普及過程前(qian)期政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策著眼(yan)于消(xiao)費者直接(jie)體(ti)會的新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)購置消(xiao)費補(bu)貼上，成功拉動起需求側積極響應(ying)，當前(qian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)已(yi)經被(bei)廣泛認(ren)知，當下階段(duan)，政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策體(ti)現兩大(da)(da)動向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)-------向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)高能(neng)量密度等(deng)先進電(dian)池(chi)技術(shu)傾斜、向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)配套(tao)設施傾斜。2018年(nian)2月份財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)部(bu)等(deng)4部(bu)《關(guan)于調整完善(shan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)推廣應(ying)用(yong)財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)補(bu)貼政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策的通知》首次提出從(cong)2018年(nian)起將新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)地(di)方購置補(bu)貼資金(jin)逐漸轉為支持充電(dian)基礎設施建設和(he)(he)運營(ying)、新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)(che)使(shi)用(yong)和(he)(he)運營(ying)等(deng)環節，2019年(nian)3月“新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)年(nian)度補(bu)貼政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策”再(zai)一次明確了這一方向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)。