近期，特斯拉計劃2020年(nian)在(zai)國內(nei)繼續(xu)新增4000個以上充(chong)電(dian)樁；中(zhong)國充(chong)電(dian)聯盟(meng)公布11月份全(quan)國電(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車充(chong)電(dian)設施(shi)運行情況(kuang)。

主(zhu)要(yao)觀點：

特(te)斯(si)拉(la)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)計劃(hua)新(xin)增(zeng)充(chong)(chong)電樁4000個(ge)，約為過(guo)去(qu)5年(nian)(nian)(nian)建(jian)設總(zong)量(liang)的(de)2倍(bei)。過(guo)去(qu)的(de)2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)特(te)斯(si)拉(la)新(xin)增(zeng)112座超(chao)(chao)級(ji)充(chong)(chong)電站(zhan)，874個(ge)充(chong)(chong)電樁，截(jie)止目(mu)前(qian)特(te)斯(si)拉(la)超(chao)(chao)級(ji)電站(zhan)覆蓋140+座中國(guo)城市，超(chao)(chao)級(ji)充(chong)(chong)電樁數量(liang)已經(jing)突(tu)破2300個(ge)。特(te)斯(si)拉(la)計劃(hua)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)在國(guo)內繼(ji)續新(xin)增(zeng)4000個(ge)以(yi)(yi)上超(chao)(chao)級(ji)充(chong)(chong)電樁，是(shi)過(guo)去(qu)五年(nian)(nian)(nian)建(jian)設總(zong)量(liang)的(de)接近2倍(bei)，可以(yi)(yi)預見的(de)是(shi)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)15w輛特(te)斯(si)拉(la)對(dui)充(chong)(chong)電需求的(de)增(zeng)長將是(shi)爆發式(shi)的(de)，特(te)斯(si)拉(la)加快充(chong)(chong)電站(zhan)布局(ju)也(ye)將進一步刺激(ji)第三方運營商繼(ji)續加快布局(ju)充(chong)(chong)電設施。

2019年(nian)11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)單月(yue)(yue)(yue)及累計新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)長明顯(xian)提速。11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)，我國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)數量(liang)1.74萬臺，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長241.5%，1-11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共樁(zhuang)數量(liang)16.4萬，同(tong)比(bi)去年(nian)1-11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長116.9%，而(er)去年(nian)1-11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)前年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)僅為(wei)19.5%。11月(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)和2019年(nian)前11個月(yue)(yue)(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)出現了明顯(xian)的加速增(zeng)(zeng)長跡象。截(jie)止(zhi)2019年(nian)11月(yue)(yue)(yue)，公(gong)共樁(zhuang)、私人樁(zhuang)分別為(wei)49.6萬、67.8萬臺，前11個月(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)能源車銷量(liang)/新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)充電樁(zhuang)保有(you)量(liang)約(yue)為(wei)2.8:1，相對去年(nian)年(nian)底（3.2:1）繼(ji)續改善但遠(yuan)期(qi)仍顯(xian)不足。

短期(qi)(qi)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)呈(cheng)現季節性(xing)提升，中長期(qi)(qi)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)市場長期(qi)(qi)空間大(da)。短期(qi)(qi)來看：隨(sui)著冬季取暖(nuan)帶來的(de)耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)提升，11月(yue)份(fen)公(gong)共樁充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)呈(cheng)現季節性(xing)明(ming)顯加速(su)，達(da)到5.35億(yi)度(du)(du)，1-11月(yue)份(fen)累計充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)45.7億(yi)度(du)(du)，同(tong)比全年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)長117.6%。我們測算2022年(nian)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)費將分(fen)別達(da)到337億(yi)度(du)(du)、361億(yi)元，四年(nian)復合增(zeng)長達(da)到80%。充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營(ying)龍頭(tou)特(te)銳德(de)激勵(li)目標要求2018-2023年(nian)5年(nian)復合增(zeng)長85%，隨(sui)著其(qi)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)快速(su)提升，盈利能力(li)有(you)望急劇(ju)提升。

地(di)方(fang)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)加速從“補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)(che)”到“補(bu)(bu)(bu)樁(zhuang)”，2020年充(chong)電設(she)(she)(she)施補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)政(zheng)策落地(di)將利于充(chong)電運營行業更(geng)好發展。2019年新(xin)能源(yuan)車(che)(che)地(di)補(bu)(bu)(bu)加速由補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)(che)到補(bu)(bu)(bu)電，《新(xin)能源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)產業發展規(gui)劃(hua)（2021-2035年）》（征求意見稿）再次強調要加快建成適度(du)超前(qian)充(chong)電網絡，并明(ming)確提出(chu)要提升充(chong)電設(she)(she)(she)施服務水平、鼓勵商業模式(shi)創新(xin)，山東等(deng)多地(di)已(yi)經(jing)公(gong)布(bu)了新(xin)能源(yuan)充(chong)電設(she)(she)(she)施獎補(bu)(bu)(bu)等(deng)政(zheng)策。年底(di)深(shen)圳已(yi)經(jing)公(gong)布(bu)全年充(chong)電設(she)(she)(she)施建設(she)(she)(she)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)情況(kuang)，以深(shen)圳為例，1kw補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)金額(e)約(yue)500元(yuan)，1個充(chong)電站約(yue)26臺樁(zhuang)，平均功率87kw，一個充(chong)電站補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)114萬(wan)元(yuan)，大致可以覆蓋所有(you)充(chong)電設(she)(she)(she)備的(de)采購成本，目前(qian)來看，高補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼(tie)(tie)力度(du)確實帶動了公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)安(an)裝進(jin)度(du)，公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)車(che)(che)樁(zhuang)比(bi)已(yi)經(jing)下降至7.4:1(2018年底(di)7.8:1）。

1、今年以來車樁(zhuang)比繼續呈下(xia)降趨(qu)勢，但充電樁(zhuang)規(gui)模上仍存在滯后

2、短期(qi)(qi)充電量呈季節性快速提(ti)升，中長期(qi)(qi)充電運營(ying)市場長期(qi)(qi)空間大

3、地方(fang)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼加(jia)速從(cong)“補(bu)(bu)(bu)車”到“補(bu)(bu)(bu)樁”，2020年(nian)充電設(she)施(shi)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼政策落(luo)地將利(li)于充電運營行業(ye)更好發(fa)展

產(chan)業政(zheng)策多次提(ti)出(chu)(chu)必(bi)須加快且適度超前建設(she)(she)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)施(shi)，鼓勵技術和商業模式創(chuang)新(xin)。發改委(wei)、能(neng)源局等四部(bu)委(wei)在2018年(nian)(nian)12月10日聯(lian)合印發了(le)《提(ti)升(sheng)新(xin)能(neng)源汽車充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)保(bao)障能(neng)力(li)行動計(ji)劃(hua)》，提(ti)出(chu)(chu)力(li)爭三年(nian)(nian)時間大幅度提(ti)升(sheng)國內充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)技術水(shui)平，并強調必(bi)須完善一車一樁的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)剛需(xu)，以進(jin)一步優化(hua)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)(she)施(shi)發展環境和產(chan)業格局。2019年(nian)(nian)12月工(gong)信部(bu)發布(bu)《新(xin)能(neng)源汽車產(chan)業發展規劃(hua)（2021-2035年(nian)(nian)）》（征求意(yi)見稿(gao)）提(ti)出(chu)(chu)加快形(xing)成適度超前、慢充(chong)(chong)(chong)為(wei)主、應(ying)急快充(chong)(chong)(chong)為(wei)輔的(de)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)網絡，提(ti)高(gao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)(she)施(shi)服(fu)務水(shui)平，充(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)(dian)運營鼓勵商業模式創(chuang)新(xin)。

政(zheng)策補(bu)貼(tie)呈(cheng)現向(xiang)先(xian)進電(dian)池技術、向(xiang)充(chong)電(dian)配(pei)套(tao)設(she)施(shi)(shi)傾斜兩大方向(xiang)。新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車普及過(guo)程前期(qi)政(zheng)策著眼于(yu)消(xiao)費(fei)者(zhe)直接體會的新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車購置(zhi)消(xiao)費(fei)補(bu)貼(tie)上，成(cheng)功拉動起需求側積極響應，當前新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車已經被廣(guang)泛認知，當下階段，政(zheng)策體現兩大動向(xiang)-------向(xiang)高能(neng)量密度等(deng)先(xian)進電(dian)池技術傾斜、向(xiang)充(chong)電(dian)配(pei)套(tao)設(she)施(shi)(shi)傾斜。2018年2月份財政(zheng)部(bu)等(deng)4部(bu)《關(guan)于(yu)調整完善新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車推廣(guang)應用財政(zheng)補(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)策的通知》首次提(ti)出從2018年起將新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車地方購置(zhi)補(bu)貼(tie)資金逐(zhu)漸(jian)轉為(wei)支持充(chong)電(dian)基礎設(she)施(shi)(shi)建設(she)和運(yun)(yun)營(ying)、新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽車使用和運(yun)(yun)營(ying)等(deng)環節，2019年3月“新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車年度補(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)策”再一(yi)次明(ming)確了這(zhe)一(yi)方向(xiang)。