2020年充電設施補貼政策落地將利于充電運營行業更好發展
近期,特斯拉計劃2020年(nian)在國(guo)內繼續(xu)新增4000個以上充(chong)(chong)電樁;中國(guo)充(chong)(chong)電聯盟公布11月份全國(guo)電動汽車(che)充(chong)(chong)電設施(shi)運(yun)行情(qing)況。
主(zhu)要觀點:
特斯(si)(si)拉(la)(la)(la)2020年(nian)計劃新增充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)4000個(ge),約為過去(qu)5年(nian)建設(she)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)的(de)2倍。過去(qu)的(de)2019年(nian)特斯(si)(si)拉(la)(la)(la)新增112座(zuo)超(chao)級充(chong)(chong)電(dian)站,874個(ge)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang),截止目前特斯(si)(si)拉(la)(la)(la)超(chao)級電(dian)站覆蓋140+座(zuo)中國城市(shi),超(chao)級充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)已經突破2300個(ge)。特斯(si)(si)拉(la)(la)(la)計劃2020年(nian)在(zai)國內繼續(xu)新增4000個(ge)以上超(chao)級充(chong)(chong)電(dian)樁(zhuang),是(shi)過去(qu)五年(nian)建設(she)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)的(de)接近2倍,可(ke)以預見的(de)是(shi)2020年(nian)新增15w輛特斯(si)(si)拉(la)(la)(la)對充(chong)(chong)電(dian)需求(qiu)的(de)增長將是(shi)爆發(fa)式的(de),特斯(si)(si)拉(la)(la)(la)加快充(chong)(chong)電(dian)站布(bu)局(ju)也將進(jin)一步刺(ci)激第三(san)方運(yun)營(ying)商繼續(xu)加快布(bu)局(ju)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)設(she)施。
2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)單月(yue)(yue)及累(lei)計新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長明顯(xian)提速(su)。11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen),我國新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)1.74萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長241.5%,1-11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)數量(liang)(liang)16.4萬(wan)(wan),同(tong)比(bi)去年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長116.9%,而去年(nian)(nian)1-11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)前(qian)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)僅為(wei)(wei)19.5%。11月(yue)(yue)份(fen)(fen)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)和2019年(nian)(nian)前(qian)11個月(yue)(yue)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)公(gong)用(yong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)出現(xian)了明顯(xian)的加速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長跡象。截止(zhi)2019年(nian)(nian)11月(yue)(yue),公(gong)共(gong)(gong)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)、私(si)人樁(zhuang)(zhuang)分別為(wei)(wei)49.6萬(wan)(wan)、67.8萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),前(qian)11個月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源車銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)/新(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)充電樁(zhuang)(zhuang)保有量(liang)(liang)約為(wei)(wei)2.8:1,相對去年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)底(di)(3.2:1)繼續改善但遠期(qi)仍顯(xian)不(bu)足。
短(duan)期(qi)充(chong)電(dian)量呈(cheng)現(xian)季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)提升(sheng),中長(chang)期(qi)充(chong)電(dian)運營市場長(chang)期(qi)空間大。短(duan)期(qi)來(lai)看:隨著冬季(ji)取暖帶來(lai)的耗電(dian)量提升(sheng),11月份公共樁充(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量呈(cheng)現(xian)季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)明顯加速,達(da)到(dao)5.35億度,1-11月份累計(ji)充(chong)電(dian)量45.7億度,同比全年(nian)同期(qi)增(zeng)長(chang)117.6%。我們測算2022年(nian)充(chong)電(dian)電(dian)量和充(chong)電(dian)費將分別達(da)到(dao)337億度、361億元,四年(nian)復合增(zeng)長(chang)達(da)到(dao)80%。充(chong)電(dian)運營龍頭(tou)特銳德激勵(li)目標(biao)要(yao)求2018-2023年(nian)5年(nian)復合增(zeng)長(chang)85%,隨著其充(chong)電(dian)量的快速提升(sheng),盈利(li)能力有望(wang)急劇提升(sheng)。
地方補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼加速從“補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)”到“補(bu)(bu)(bu)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)”,2020年(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼政(zheng)策落地將利于(yu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)運(yun)營行業(ye)更好發(fa)展。2019年(nian)新(xin)能源(yuan)車(che)地補(bu)(bu)(bu)加速由補(bu)(bu)(bu)車(che)到補(bu)(bu)(bu)電(dian),《新(xin)能源(yuan)汽車(che)產業(ye)發(fa)展規劃(hua)(2021-2035年(nian))》(征求(qiu)意見稿)再次強調(diao)要加快(kuai)建成(cheng)適度超(chao)前充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)網絡,并明確提(ti)出(chu)要提(ti)升充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施服務水(shui)平(ping)、鼓勵商(shang)業(ye)模式創(chuang)新(xin),山(shan)東等多地已(yi)(yi)(yi)經(jing)公(gong)布(bu)了新(xin)能源(yuan)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施獎補(bu)(bu)(bu)等政(zheng)策。年(nian)底(di)深圳已(yi)(yi)(yi)經(jing)公(gong)布(bu)全年(nian)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設施建設補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼情況,以深圳為例(li),1kw補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼金額約500元,1個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)約26臺樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang),平(ping)均功率87kw,一(yi)個充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)站(zhan)補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼114萬(wan)元,大致可以覆蓋(gai)所有充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)設備的采購成(cheng)本,目前來看(kan),高補(bu)(bu)(bu)貼力(li)度確實帶動了公(gong)用樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)安裝(zhuang)進度,公(gong)用樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)車(che)樁(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)比已(yi)(yi)(yi)經(jing)下降至7.4:1(2018年(nian)底(di)7.8:1)。
1、今年以來(lai)車樁比繼(ji)續呈下(xia)降趨(qu)勢,但充電樁規模(mo)上(shang)仍存(cun)在滯后



2、短期(qi)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)量呈季節性快速提升,中長(chang)期(qi)充(chong)(chong)電(dian)運營市場(chang)長(chang)期(qi)空間大




3、地(di)方(fang)補(bu)貼加速從“補(bu)車”到(dao)“補(bu)樁”,2020年充電設施補(bu)貼政(zheng)策落地(di)將利于充電運(yun)營行業更好發展(zhan)
產(chan)業(ye)政策多次提出必須(xu)加快且適度超前建設(she)充(chong)(chong)電設(she)施,鼓勵技(ji)術和商業(ye)模(mo)式創新。發(fa)改(gai)委(wei)、能(neng)源(yuan)局(ju)等四(si)部(bu)委(wei)在2018年(nian)12月(yue)10日聯合印發(fa)了(le)《提升(sheng)新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)充(chong)(chong)電保障能(neng)力行動計劃(hua)》,提出力爭三年(nian)時(shi)間大幅度提升(sheng)國內(nei)充(chong)(chong)電技(ji)術水平,并強調必須(xu)完善一車(che)一樁的充(chong)(chong)電剛(gang)需(xu),以進一步優(you)化充(chong)(chong)電基礎(chu)設(she)施發(fa)展環境和產(chan)業(ye)格局(ju)。2019年(nian)12月(yue)工信部(bu)發(fa)布《新能(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)產(chan)業(ye)發(fa)展規劃(hua)(2021-2035年(nian))》(征求意(yi)見稿)提出加快形(xing)成適度超前、慢充(chong)(chong)為(wei)主、應急快充(chong)(chong)為(wei)輔的充(chong)(chong)電網絡,提高(gao)充(chong)(chong)電基礎(chu)設(she)施服務水平,充(chong)(chong)電運營鼓勵商業(ye)模(mo)式創新。
政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)補(bu)貼呈現向(xiang)(xiang)先進(jin)電(dian)(dian)池技術、向(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)(dian)配套設施傾斜兩(liang)大(da)方向(xiang)(xiang)。新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)普及過程前期政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)著眼于(yu)消(xiao)費者直(zhi)接體會的(de)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)購(gou)置(zhi)消(xiao)費補(bu)貼上,成功拉動起(qi)需求側積極響應(ying),當前新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)已經被廣(guang)泛認知,當下階段,政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)體現兩(liang)大(da)動向(xiang)(xiang)-------向(xiang)(xiang)高能(neng)量密度(du)等先進(jin)電(dian)(dian)池技術傾斜、向(xiang)(xiang)充電(dian)(dian)配套設施傾斜。2018年(nian)2月(yue)份財(cai)政(zheng)部等4部《關于(yu)調整(zheng)完善(shan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)推廣(guang)應(ying)用(yong)財(cai)政(zheng)補(bu)貼政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)的(de)通知》首次提(ti)出從(cong)2018年(nian)起(qi)將新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)地(di)方購(gou)置(zhi)補(bu)貼資金逐(zhu)漸轉為(wei)支持(chi)充電(dian)(dian)基(ji)礎設施建設和運(yun)營(ying)、新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)使用(yong)和運(yun)營(ying)等環節,2019年(nian)3月(yue)“新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)(che)(che)年(nian)度(du)補(bu)貼政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)”再(zai)一(yi)次明確了這一(yi)方向(xiang)(xiang)。



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